Mary Meeker, an analyst from Morgan Stanley, been revaling the Tech Trends since early 2008, has recently revealed the latest Tech Trend - 20 Mar during end of last month. Nothing realy suprises the market - Recession, crisis, Online Ads market shrinking and so on.

One pretty encouraging factor from this trend, is that Online Retail is equal penetration with 'EMAIL', both have 70% of the penetration rate. Beside, at the very ending of the slide there is a very strong words for e-Commerce - BIG DEAL!! :)

 

Economy Tech trends in 2009 by Mary Meeker (Morgan Stanley)

 

However, the one key problem for the Tech Trend, that direct related to Asia Retail exporters, is the slowdown of retail industry in US and Europe. Asia exclude Japan, are majority exports oriented. These big giants MNC are highly rely on the consumer market in US & Europe to consume their products. For the past 20 years, US consumers been consuming junk goods from everywhere of the world, and producing tons and tons of ‘deleted items’ in their ‘un-recyclable bin’. Today, these groups of consumers ‘hold back’ on their crazy spending behavior, and the entire supply chain immediately halted.

While many middle-men ‘distributors’ buying ‘cheap’ goods from Asia and ‘resell’ in ‘high-value’ to US and Europe, today I bet that there are many of these middle-men have filed for Chapter 11. Many of them have more than enough inventories on hand but no moving market. The exporters, on the other hand, are too halted with over productions in their warehouse (it is a good news for those who implement JIT – Just in Time production model) and very bad news for those who always anti-US mfg theories.

Many of the SME/SMIs in Asia, especially in China, are rely on Alibaba to be the center-link for them to export. Today, the alarm hit directly to Alibaba and all its customers. Will Alibaba survive this round of winter? With the burden of its hundreds thousands of SME/SMIs relying on this platform to seek for new contract. How will Aliaba react, and will its ‘internal consumption and internal marketplace’ will be the ultimate solution to its millions of consumers? Only Alibaba know…